I always appreciate anyone who wants to discuss refining, but I'd have to disagree wrt where I'd put my money in the space. HF Sinclair overpaid for Sinclair and totally screwed up their RD foray. They never should have closed Cheyenne. Most of their pre-COVID benefits (i.e., inland crude discounts) are mostly gone.
PSX is an NGL play. They still own a lot of refineries at risk for closure over the next 10 years (Bayway, Ferndale, Los Angeles).
VLO is up bc they have the best refineries and have repeatedly been first movers and made good investments when no one else had the courage to do so (hydrocracker investments, DGD). The stock price has performed well, but market cap hasn't gone up much bc they've bought back shares. VLO is the one in this group I'd like to own if it dropped a little more. I have near term concerns regarding the economy/cracks.
PBF is dirt cheap, but lower tier refineries. Definitely the high-beta play and could easily double pretty quickly if the market turns positive.
MPC has good USGC refineries and a good midstream business, but their inland crude advantage is also gone and I think the market hasn't fully recognized that yet.
I always appreciate anyone who wants to discuss refining, but I'd have to disagree wrt where I'd put my money in the space. HF Sinclair overpaid for Sinclair and totally screwed up their RD foray. They never should have closed Cheyenne. Most of their pre-COVID benefits (i.e., inland crude discounts) are mostly gone.
PSX is an NGL play. They still own a lot of refineries at risk for closure over the next 10 years (Bayway, Ferndale, Los Angeles).
VLO is up bc they have the best refineries and have repeatedly been first movers and made good investments when no one else had the courage to do so (hydrocracker investments, DGD). The stock price has performed well, but market cap hasn't gone up much bc they've bought back shares. VLO is the one in this group I'd like to own if it dropped a little more. I have near term concerns regarding the economy/cracks.
PBF is dirt cheap, but lower tier refineries. Definitely the high-beta play and could easily double pretty quickly if the market turns positive.
MPC has good USGC refineries and a good midstream business, but their inland crude advantage is also gone and I think the market hasn't fully recognized that yet.