Wreckage
Let’s spend the weekend looking through the tech wreckage.
Small caps will have too wait.
My Top 25 Model was a market performer on the disaster day. The cyclicals were down big, but the hedge names worked. I was surprised by the poor performance of Matador and Halliburton.
I have had no technology stocks for at least the last year. I played around with some Corning in 2023, but I have just been watching for over one year. Now a few of these stocks are getting interesting.
Can I ever understand them? It is time to find out.
The 20 stocks below are the best ideas where I know at least 50% of the story. The question is can I get 75%. It will be fun to try.
What can I say about Trump and tariffs?
I am a free trade guy. Always have been, always will be. This is not a fight I would have picked, but now here it is. I would have to concentrated on “deconstructing the administrative state”, but I guess that was too boring and Big Don needed a distraction. For Pelosi, Schumer, and Sanders, to now be free traders is comical beyond belief.
Let’s try to stay calm an look at the the new opportunities the market is giving us. In a perfect world I should have been better prepared for a tech collapse. This is my shopping list (prices after the market open on Friday 4/4/25):
Teradyne - TER - $70 - oligopolist in test
MKS Instruments - MKSI - $59 - cool test equipment, balance sheet?
Rogers - ROG - $58 - duPont offered $200+, stock now $60
Ultra Clean - UCTT - $18 - favorite small cap, 60% EV/sales, under book
Amkor Technology - AMKR - $15 - semi-packaging, First Eagle idea, under book
MongoDB - MDB - $159 - the software disruptor??, valuation??
Logitech - LOGI - $69 - big player in gaming
Corning - GLW - $40 - great technology, misunderstood
Zebra Tech - ZBRA - $214 - tied to warehouse spending
UiPath - PATH - $10 - AI software, Cathie Wood idea, valuation??
Hewlett Packard Ent. - HPE - $13 - restructuring constantly??
Arrow Electronics - ARW - $93 - the default tech name for value guys
Applied Materials - AMAT - $129 - favorite mega-cap
Adobe - ADBE - $358 - more of a small business play, non-semi stock
TE Connectivity - TEL - $126 - the old AMP, was part of Tyco
Keysight Technology - KEYS - $131 - old HP test technology
Global Foundries - GFS - $33 - will we really make chips in US?
Kyndryl - KD - $29 - a big miss two years ago, spinout
Trimble - TRMB - $57 - missed this one
CDW Corp. - CDW - $147 - high quality distributor