I have my model portfolio in good shape, so what is the next step?
I want to keep comparing my worst few ideas in the portfolio, with at least 10 potential candidates.
This my job for the weekend, stop the searching, and come to a conclusion on many of the 10+ potential ideas.
The model portfolio in order:
Corteva - $53 - seeds and pesticides
Nutrien - $46 - potash, nitrogen, and phosphate fertilizer
Tyson - $62 - beef, chicken, pork
Chart Industries - $114 - hydrogen, LNG, cryogenics
Darling - $41 = animal feed, green diesel and airplane fuel
Red Rock Resorts - $56 - locals casinos in Las Vegas
Royal Gold - $133 - royalties of 40+ properties
HF Sinclair - $48 - Mid-continent refineries
Brunswick - $77 - boats, fishing and high horsepower
Jack in the Box - $56 - burgers and franchises
Nexstar - $161 - 200+ local TV stations
Titan International - $8 - tires for tractors
Revvity - $120 - lab equipment
Royalty Pharma - $27 - pharma/biopharma royalties
Treehouse Foods - $39 generic crackers and soup
Rayonier - $29 - timber for paper, and real estate
Kinder Morgan - $21 - gas and products pipelines
Middleby - $139 - restaurant equipment
Halliburton - $31 - fracking, fluids
First Cash Financial - $119 - pawn shops, furniture on credit
I am very happy with my first 18 ideas. Halliburton is kind of a holding idea, but is still solid. I am wavering on First Cash because of their point-of-sale business that has plenty of credit risk.
Below are my top ideas, adjusted for price changes after the earnings season:
Hasbro - $66
Etsy - $54
Bowlero - $11
Goodyear - $8
Norwegian Cruise - $16
Oxford - $90
Ashland - $86
Rodgers - $108
LKQ - $40
Ziff Davis - $42
First Watch - $17