Wavering - Consumer Discretionary Sector

Let’s move on to our second sector. I am already beginning to waver on how many consumer discretionary stocks I will include if the final portfolio.

Listed below is my rough breakout of the 7 different sub-sectors. We will examine each separately. We take a big jump from a difficult to understand sector, to one of the most straightforward sectors.

The consensus is that consumer balance sheets are stretched, but the “high end” consumer is still spending. I really hate having a consensus view, but that is all I have. I am slightly convinced the low consumer sentiment readings are skewed by TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome). However, I hate making investment decisions based on political ideas. Let’ focus on the stocks near their 5-year lows, and see what we find.

Right now one name I know I will include is Tractor Supply - TSCO - $31, but let’s do that in the next post.

My 7 sub-sectors of Consumer Discretionary:

1. Retail (Tractor Supply, Advance Auto, CarMax)

2. Vehicles (Brunswick, Harley-Davidson, Gentex)

3. Home Building (Mohawk, Pulte, Trex)

4. Restaurants (First Watch, Shake Shack, Wendy’s)

5. Apparel (Columbia, Oxford Industries, PVH Corp.)

6. Travel (Norwegian Cruise, Choice Hotels, Alaska Air)

7. Other (gambling, appliances, furniture) Whirlpool, Red Rock, Arhaus

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Spring 2026 - Progress

1. Materials (283) - Nutrien - maybe Eastman Chemical, Smurfit Westrock, Graphic Packaging, Alamos Gold

2. Consumer Discretionary (477) - Tractor Supply, Brunswick, Mohawk, ???

3. Financials (687) -

4. REITs (172) -

5. Communications (216) -

6. Energy (227) -

7. Industrials (606) -

8. Technology -

9. Consumer Staples -

10. Healthcare -

11. Utilities -