Top 25 Model Portfolio - Ranked
In the real world of a generalist I need to make tough decisions about allocating time. It would have been nice to linger on my existing portfolio, but I needed to spend time on new ideas. I think I added the best consumer defensive and the best cyclical to the mix with Pepsi and Gentex.
Maybe next on deck are Merck and Columbia Sportswear
I have given up thinking in terms of sectors, but rather trying to balance “risk on” vs “risk off” types of stocks
I think the portfolio remains balanced toward risk and the economy.
Risk on - 9 - RXO, Brunswick, Teck, Chart, Thor, Darling, Nexstar, Middleby, Gentex
Neutral - 9 - Halliburton, Matador, Iridium, Red Rock, Sinclair, Corteva, Nutrien, Restaurant Brands, Rayonier
Maybe some would consider the energy or agriculture stocks risky, but I do not. Red Rock is tied to the Vegas locals market not travel. Iridium is a unique company tied to nothing. I cannot call restaurant franchising or timber harvesting cyclical businesses.
Risk off - 7 - Tyson, Alexandria, Sysco, Royal Gold, AES, Kinder Morgan, Pepsi
Here is the Top 25 Model Portfolio ranked from best idea to worst:
RXO - $16 - rolling up the truck brokerage industry, could lose some port traffic
Brunswick - $56 - think fishing boats, not yachts
Halliburton - $21 - drill baby drill. leading fracking technology
Teck - $39 - bite size copper asset for the big mining guys
Tyson - $55 - cattle cycle starting to turn
Gentex - $21 - high end auto parts, and no debt
Iridium - $28 - unique L-band constellation for 100% coverage and reliability
Matador - $46 - large inventory of Delaware Basin drill sites
Chart - $152 - LNG, SMR, hydrogen, and cryogenic, infrastructure
Pepsi - $130 - 22 separate $1+ billion dollar brands
Alexandria - $71 - invented and dominates the lab space category
Rayonier - $23 - timber harvesting with a real estate kicker
Thor - $87 - dominates high end RVs, some tariff issues
Red Rock - $50 - dominates higher end locals market in Vegas
Royal Gold - $176 - exposure to 50+ gold/copper properties
Nutrien - $60 - potash, nitrogen, and phosphate, fertilizer
Sinclair - $37 - solid mid-continent refiner
Restaurant Brands - $71 - Tim Horton’s, Burger King, and Popeye’s
Nexstar - $169 - local TV stations in 100+ markets, and 2 unique networks
Corteva -$72 - leading share in the high tech seed business
Sysco - $75 - leader in service to chain and small restaurants
Darling - $31 - largest independent renderer, with interesting supplements
Middleby - $147 - largest maker of restaurant equipment
AES - $11 - large Indiana and Ohio utility, with a solar kicker
Kinder Morgan - $28 - long distance gas and products pipelines