To Do List - 2023
Here are some of the stocks, or groups, that I want to think about before June 30, 2023.
I am happy with the current model portfolio, but I need to keep challenging it with new ideas.
I started with a very rough sketch of a model portfolio on 12/31/22, and then made some tweaks in late January. Now I think I can reach a final portfolio by 6/30/23. Here are some stocks I need to think about:
WHR - This is a stock that is haunting me right now. What is true earnings power? Is it too early? Or maybe Mohawk - MHK is better? Maybe just buy a homebuilder, LEGH or GRBK at 5x. I know it is too soon to buy deep cyclicals, but maybe this time is different.
IFF - They basically blew off all of 2023, and the story is now about 2024. I know the story very well. These are well above average businesses that can grow at above average rates, but what is the right entry point. Is this stock just “dead money” for too long.
PXD - I have become a believer in the Pioneer story. CEO Simpson really is trying to execute a long-term strategy. I was not a fan of the flexible dividend plan, but after listing to a January conference talk, I am now on board. With gas prices so low, this must be a decent time to buy. I really want to find a smaller company, but PXD does have a substantial advantage because of their high quality acreage .
I want to invest the apparel glut. Maybe Macy’s or Nordstrom is easiest, but I want to learn more about the smaller stocks. Maybe even Rocky Brands - RCKY or Designer Brands - DBI. At the right price maybe even Hanesbrand - HBI or VF Corp. - VFC make sense after their dividend cuts.
Adidas AG is a special case. I really hate to focus on $30 billion market caps, but the valuation is compelling.
I want to find a small cap restaurant stock. FWRG results are too strong, and I need to do more work on Noodles - NLDS. RUTH is solid, but not spectacular.
Can I make any sense of cable/media stocks? Buffett likes PARA. Cable One - CABO is a great rural cable company. I still want to understand Ziff-Davis - ZD, Marcus - MCS, and John Wiley - WLY.
With rates inching higher, the utilities are still calling out to me. Maybe it is just as simple as Dominion - D - at its low, and maybe ETR, AES, or AGR are even better.
Could a value investor ever buy a hydrogen stock? I am strangely attracted to the PLUG story, but maybe Bloom Energy - BE is simpler. Chart industries - GTLS is another idea. GNRC is not hydrogen, but it is kind of a “green” stock.
What about Intel - INTC after the dividend cut. Maybe every value guy should own this now? Are there other small technology stocks? I do not have good ideas in this area.
There are dozens of busted bio-tech stocks. Crazy Cathie likes Intellia - NTLA, I kind of like Kodiak - KOD, or Blueprint - BPMC. I doubt I can ever own this stuff, but I will look.
What about boring old healthcare names like Baxter - BAX. There is plenty of restructuring going on. Maybe VTRS?
How should I think about Howard Hughes - HHC, or even LAND and FPI?
Should I give in an buy a bank stock at 10-12x, maybe UMB? Is Brown & Brown - BRO - cheap enough at 15x EV/EBITDA?
The one industrial name that is modestly interesting is Trinity - TRN, but their leasing company is complicated. Maybe Liquidity Services - LQDT?
What about the smaller food companies like B&G Food -BGS, Sun Opta - STKL, or even Limoneria - LMNR? Maybe Treehouse - TRS?
Is there a good idea from Substack or SA authors? Right now I like Spectrum Brands - SPB, but I need to do a better survey.
Can I ever get comfortable with Lumen - LUMN?
Can I live with MKS Instrument’s - MKSI - large acquisition? This is a great company with interesting technologies.
I have never used the auto parts companies as defensive names, but what about Advanced Auto - AAP
Should I look at more stocks under $200 million in market cap like MMMB or DLTH.
Is Williams-Sonoma a great company I should own at some price? They report 3/15.
What about SPAC’s? I know Cramer likes Bowlero - BOWL, I kind of like Magnolia Oil & Gas - MGY, or Rimini Street. - RMNI, or Daskeke - DSKE
What about hiding in a 8% yielder Magellan Midstream - MMP?
Can anyone figure out Philip Morris International - PM?
What about busted IPO’s like Warby Parker, they reported today with mixed results?
Can I get through this list in 120 days? Stay tuned.