Ten Stocks for 2024
I have seen too many bad lists, I have to do my own.
I remain committed to the idea of teaching value investing, but I am still searching for the best format.
Right now let’s just do a simple list. The list avoids economically sensitive companies. There will be a day for Brunswick, Oxford, Nordstrom’s, Mohawk, Thor, or Whirlpool, but that will not be in 2024 most likely.
Corteva - CTVA - $48 - I love all the agriculture stocks. Nutrien, Mosaic, Lindsay, Titan International, FMC and several others are very cheap. I was too early on these stocks, but the ag cycle will turn, and when it does these stocks will be perceived as growth stocks. CTVA has great science behind it. Everyone should know the story of Pioneer Hi-Bred (acquired by Corteva) founder Henry Wallace.
Tyson Foods - TSN - $54 - Two years ago TSN was viewed as an evil monopolist that had unfairly consolidated the meat processing industry. Now they are just a silly commodity processor selling at book value. The truth is somewhere in between those two extremes. This is a well run company in a tough industry.
Royal Gold - RGLD - $121 - The Fed has been out of control for 20+ years. Everyone should own a hedge. The royalty business is a way to limit the risk of gold mining. More adventurous investors could try Novagold or Newmont.
Revvity - RVTY - $109 - This is the old medical lab instrument business of Perkin-Elmer. It is the largest holding of a very interesting mid-cap hedge fund called Select Equity. I despise 99.5% of the hedge fund industry, but these guys have a very well constructed portfolio. There are 20 great ideas here, maybe Signet, Portillo’s, Tempur-Sealy, or Middleby.
Cable One - CABO - $556 - The entire media industry is a mess. Maybe you can a case for Paramount Global, or Warner Discovery, but the balance sheets are too ugly. CABO is more a play on rural internet. This is another well run company in a tough industry. I am still looking at Ziff-Davis.
Philip Morris International - PM - $94 - For more than ten years I tried to avoid the high yield stocks, but now they are getting interesting. PM is a complex story with many moving parts. About 40% of the business is now smoke-free, with more to come. The legacy tobacco business still has pricing power. I have cooled on Verizon as a high yield idea, and I am less excited about utilities.
Chart Industries - GTLS - $135 - The hydrogen business is real. Orders will continue to be lumpy, but growing. The GTLS balance sheet is improving. Maybe there is too much risk if Republicans get elected. Bloom Energy is another idea in this space.
Kinder Morgan - KMI - $18 - I remain concerned that problems at the FERC could slow projects in the near-term, but the valuation is just too compelling. Pipelines are boring, but boring is ok. Williams is an alternative.
Acadia Healthcare - ACHC - $78 - I want to steal one idea from the First Eagle Small Cap Opportunity Fund. They had a solid 17% year in 2023. Plagiarism is ok in the investment idea business. There are 30+ good ideas in this portfolio, maybe Alaska Air or LSB Industries. ACHC is the leading independent supplier of mental health care
Unifi - UFI - $6.60 - This was a First Eagle idea, but they bailed. A relatively new hedge fund called Azarias Capital has stepped up and bought 7% of UFI. These are very respected small cap guys building a new hedge fund. They were right on the uranium stocks, and also own my ideas Argan and Matrix Services. UFI makes polester yarn out of recycled materials.