Substack Update + A Walk Through the Mall
Welcome to my new readers.
I now realize I had not updated my bio on Substack, so let me provide some background.
I was a founding Director of the Prudent Bear Fund. We started the fund from scratch and in grew it to nearly $2 billion in assets. The fund was sold to Federated Investors in 2008. I was more of a strategy guy, and did not get involved in day-to-day operations.
I was the Director of Research for Behind the Numbers. We sold about $2 million/year of institutional research for 15+ years to hedge fund managers and traditional long investors. I helped to train our analysts, and encouraged them to find new ideas.
I graded CFA exams for 10+ years, and helped write practice exams for JKE Exam Review. We eventually sold the CFA study business to Kaplan.
I was a consultant to a variety of “long-only” value investors, and helped them with their research process.
I helped write David Tice’s 2001 Congressional testimony on the need for more independent research.
I am currently a consultant to a small value manager in Ft. Worth, Texas.
I have a BBA from the University of Wisconsin (1980) and an MBA from TCU (1984), and finished my CFA in 1985.
My hobbies are horse race handicapping and horse ownership, chess, sports betting, and fantasy baseball..
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I started reading Substack to follow the great political writing of Matt Taibbi. He the guy who called Goldman Sachs the “great vampire squid” in a Rolling Stone article.
I started writing on Substack in November 2022 to help teach young analysts how to analyze individual companies, and eventually build a 20-25 stocks portfolio using their own research. This is essentially the investment book I always wanted to write. Instead of telling old “war stories” about great investments of the past, my idea is to use live data to find some new great stock picks.
I have just started to read some of the other investment writers on Substack. I started with Andrew Walker’s excellent blog and podcast, Yet Another Value Blog/Podcast He has great “deep dives” on Scott’s Miracle-Gro and Brunswick. I will eventually listen to all his back podcasts. They are exactly the type of independent research I love to find on the internet. Andrew’s work led me PJ’s SMID Cap Investment Ideas on Substack. If you want an example of how to write an investment report, read his work on Spectrum Brands. Both the one-pager and the longer report are spectacular. Andrew’s podcast also took me to the deeply insightful writings of Samir Patel at Askeladden Capital. My old friend Tim Heitman has just started writing small cap ideas at Investing501 Newsletter on Substack. There are 20+ other Substack investment writers that I want to review when time permits.
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I started my shopping mall walking again a few days ago, and already found some investment ideas to think about.
Yet Another Value Podcast had a deep dive on Oxford Industries - OXM. I had nice talks with the associates at both Tommy Bahama’s and newly acquired Johnny Was. I was impressed and want to learn more quickly.
The Fossil Group - FOSL - The associate told me they have a new designer who is going to “upgrade” the brand. It is a washed out $5 stock, but maybe there is something left.
Trading at book value I guess I have to take another look and Nordstrom’s and Macy’s. My instinct tells me to run in the other direction, but the valuations are too cheap to ignore
Warby Parker - WRBY is a busted IPO that might be interesting at some price. I thought the concept was high end, but they had $95 sunglasses that even a cheap bastard like me might buy.
Eventually I have to look at American Eagle, Under Armour, and Levi Strauss. I visited briefly with the associates at each store.
I should review Williams-Sonoma - WSM - as perhaps another high quality idea like my Choice Hotels write-up
I was impressed by simplicity of the merchandise at Steven Madden - SHOO. It has been a long time since I looked at shoe stocks. The stock is fairly cheap.
I did considerable due diligence at newly spun out Victoria’s Secret - VSCO. Further research is necessary. It’s a dirty job, but somebody has to do it.
I was glad Vera Bradley - VRA - closed their store in the way to expensive Northpark Mall. I have always been intrigued by this little company.
I was impressed by my lunch at Shake Shack. They have a great basic cheeseburger for just $6.50, and have a nice free water cooler for the cheap bastards. The stock still looks too expensive, but maybe someday.
The challenge is to walk through any mall and pick out all the public companies. I missed only one. I did not realize Burberry was a public company, but it is BURBY. The real challenge is to identify all the stores that part of a larger public company. This is tough, but I need to do a lot of walking.