It has taken some effort to move from Dallas to The Villages, Florida, but now I have a more peaceful place to do some writing. Of course the markets are crazy, and almost nobody cares about analyzing individual stocks. Yet, I still think it is important to teach real value investing.
I still prefer 4-5% short term Treasuries to stocks. I continue to fear a significant recession in lurking. The election is too close to call, and adds to instability.
If you pointed a gun at my head, these are my 10 best stock ideas.
Corteva - CTVA - Earnings are volatile, but the science is real. Selling for 50% of what Monsanto and Syngenta were acquired for.
Tyson - TSN - The company done a great job of consolidating the industry, profitability will reappear someday
Royal Gold - RGLD - I still love the royalty structure, and their exposure to several interesting junior miners. Everyone should own some gold.
Red Rock Resorts - Locals gaming is fundamentally great business. Durango is a big success, and they have the real estate to build a few more like Durango
Cable One - CABO - Wow, this has been my worst stock since I did a quick list in January. I still believe in the valuation, but I am beginning to fear I am missing something.
Kinder Morgan - KMI - This is my Trump stock. There are plenty of interesting projects if the regulators will step aside.
Chart Industries - GTLS - This my Biden/Newsom stock. I think this is the best way to play the green energy buildout. I wish the balance sheet was cleaner.
Acadia Healthcare - ACHC - My one thematic idea, we are all going to need more mental healthcare.
Unifi - UFI - In a perfect world my portfolio would be 20 stocks just like this one. UFI recycles plastic into neat stuff.
TreeHouse Foods - THS - A maker of generic snacks that is undergoing a significant restructuring
I will keep “to do” list in 5 categories:
Industry reviews I have done, or that I want to do
Unique larger cap companies I want to watch
A long list of cyclicals that I still have to wait for
Busted growth stocks I want to learn more about
Unique small cap names that deserve consideration
Sorry for the long lists, but they help me to keep this monster modestly organized
INDUSTRIES:
Restaurants - Jack In the Box, First Watch and many more
Utilities - AES, Essential Utilities and many more
Agricultural cyclicals - Nutrien, Mosaic and several more
Refiners - Phillips 66 and Valero
Packaging - Sealed Air and International Paper, what is sexier than cardboard boxes
Medical devices - Baxter, Avantor, Smith-Nephew
Drugs - Roche and Viatris
E&C - Jacobs and GE Vernova
Chemicals - Dow and duPont
Miners - Rio Tinto and Peabody
Media - Nexstar, Sinclair
Advertisers - Interpublic and Omnicom
REIT’s - Empire, Cubesmart, Weyerhauser
Insurance brokerage - Brown & Brown, Art Gallegher
Financials - First Cash Financial, Renaissance Holding, sorry no banks for this guy
Tech - Corning and Teradyne, not an area of emphasis right now
Retail - Kohls, Dollar General, Nordstrom’s
Telecom - Verizon and ATT
Energy - Helmerich & Payne, Oceaneering International
Auto Parts - Goodyear and BorgWarner
Beverages - Keurig Dr Pepper, Molson Coors
Packaged Food - Conagra, Kellnova
UNIQUE LARGER CAP IDEAS
Revvity
Philip Morris International
Newell
VF Corp
Advance Auto Parts
International Flavors
Charles River
Aramark
Lamb Weston
CH Robinson
Ashland
Patterson
Middleby
Driven Brands
Hillenbrand
IAC
Air Products
Prestige Consumer
Scotts Miracle-Gro
Steven Madden
Reynolds Consumer
Cal-Maine
Warner Music
Mattel
Norfolk Southern
Sysco
Keysight
Ingredion
Valmont
Flowers Foods
CYCLICAL STOCKS THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT:
Brunswick
Whirlpool
Thor
Polaris
Harley Davidson
Mohawk
Oxford
Trinity
Foot Locker
Tempur Sealy
Ethan Allan
Leggett & Platt
Alaska Air
Green Brick Partners
Howard Hughes
Choice Hotels
MasterBrand
John Bean Technologies
BUSTED GROWTH STOCKS:
Coursera
Portillo’s
Duckhorn Portfolio
Etsy
Bowlero
Azenta
Astrana
Royalty Pharma
OneWater Marine
Roblox
Mongo DB
Warby Parker
SMALLER CAP IDEAS:
SunOpta
MP Materials
Douglas Dynamics
Ziff - Davis
American Vanguard
Lindblad
Monro
Phibro Animal Health
Victoria Secret
B&G Foods
Heidrik & Stuggles
Marcus
Liquidity Services
Designer Brands
Hanesbrands
LSB Industries
Duluth Holdings
John Wiley & Sons
Northwest Natural
Lindsay
Pricemart