Quirky - MTDR
Matador Resources - MTDR - $44 is my second worst performing stock in 2025 (-21%), and is still one of my top ideas.
It is not that often that you have CEO’s quoting exact figures of how much stock management and employees have bought in the last quarter, but that is exactly what happened on the MTDR first quarter call. To some that might seem a little aggressive or promotional, to me I will call it quirky.
MTDR does have an investment story to get excited about. They have done a great job building a unique asset base. I believe they really do have a 10 year runway of drill prospects. To an old oil and gas guy this seems ludicrous, but the industry has changed. I was first convinced of this change by the guys at Pioneer Natural, and then Exxon bought them. I guess Exxon believed the story too. Pioneer had that same 10 year inventory of prospects.
MTDR has the balance sheet in good shape. Maybe they will find an asset to buy, or maybe they will continue to buy back stock. I am happy either way. I am thrilled that MTDR chose not to get into the “variable dividend” strategy other producers have chosen. MTDR even hinted they might do some type of “spin” with their gas processing business.
I am happy to have Victory Capital and T Rowe Price along with me on the MTDR wild ride. They are both solid value investors that own several of my stocks.
It was interesting to note that TRMCX (T Rowe Mid-Cap Value) did start a position in Celanese - CE - $52 and PulteGroup - PHM - $102. That is two value guys in two days with new homebuilder positions. T Rowe has big Baxter and Perrigo positions. Victory is just starting to buy fertilizer stocks, and did add a new Nucor - NUE - $116 position.
Several value investors have positions in Civitas - CIVI - $29. The problem here is the variable dividend strategy and the political risk in CIVI’s Colorado assets.
The good news is that MTDR does not have any tariff exposure. The bad news is that China’s problems are hurting oil demand and prices.
Let’s continue with one stock a day. Maybe the cyclicals next Brunswick, Thor, and RXO. Or maybe copper, Teck
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Best ideas:
Halliburton
Matador Resources
to be continued
New Ideas:
Entegris
Celanese
Nucor
Homebuilders - Lennar, PulteGroup
Krispy Kreme
Atlas Energy