Quarters - Much To Do About Nothing
We are about halfway through earnings season. The theme has been conservative forecasts for 2025.
It is just so depressing listening to the analysts ask too many short-term questions. The mental cost of maintenance research cannot be underestimated.
It was probably a tactical mistake not to anticipate the weak forecasts, but there was no place to hide. Yes, we should have just owned Antero Midstream - AM - $16, the ultimate cash substitute.
I guess the update is I am not in a hurry to sell KMI, DOW is a clear no go, none of the other stocks I am waiting on have had a bad quarter. So I am either bored to tears, or paralyzed, but so far the quarterly results have a yawn
Kinder-Morgan - 1/22 - results strong as expected, but forecast a little muted, solid B
Halliburton - 1/22 - solid results, but a weak forecast given, “Drill Baby Drill”, slightly puzzling, weak B-
Alexandria Real Estate - 1/27 - conservative forecast, good investor day from early December, B+
Sysco - 1/28 - June year end, so forecast only to 6/25, solid performance in national accounts, but local restaurants still weak, I like the story more, A-
Brunswick - 1/30 - is this the earnings trough?, conservative forecast, B
Dow - 1/30 pre - let’s watch this one, not a holding yet, very weak presentation, did not make the upside case, F
Revvity - 1/31 - solid results, lab spending better, but China issues linger, C
Tyson - 2/3 - strong results, but cattle cycle still weak, B+
RXO - 2/5 - confusing results with Coyote mixed in, this was a frustrating call because of the short-term focus, debt still only 1.7x trough EBITDA, all the analyst focus was on the short-term rate environment, this is still my best stock, B, but Wall Street thought it was a D
Rayonier - 2/5 - solid asset sales, some concern about solar and carbon capture decent buyback news, story intact, B+
Corteva - 2/5 - seeds are strong but pesticides are still weak, B
FirstCash 2/6 - strong results, but I guess Wall Street wanted a bigger forecast, B+
Red Rock - 2/11 post
Restaurant Brands - 2/12 during
Royal Gold - 2/12 post
Iridium 2/14 pre
Matador 2/18 post
Teck - 2/19 during
HF Sinclair - 2/20- pre
Middleby - 2/20 - activist, former Trian guy, takes a 6% position, not sure I want to sell the retail business, stock has done well
Nutrien - 2/20 during
Chart - 2/21 pre
Darling - 2/26 post
Nexstar - 2/27 pre
AES - 2/28 post
Thor - 3/7 pre