Performance - 6 Months/ Yawn-REYN
All that effort for basically nothing, my return for first six months was + 0.08%.
That was well behind the S&P 500 monster, but ahead of my mid-cap value competitors.
Without any exposure to financials or technology it is hard to keep pace with the indexes.
Big losers were RXO, Brunswick, Thor, Halliburton, Matador, and Alexandria. Big winners were Royal Gold, Nutrien, and Corteva.
Top 25 Model - First 6 months of 2025 = + 0.08%
S&P 500 = + 6.20%
Equal-Weight S&P (RSP) = +4.80
Mid Cap Value Index = + 2.68%
First Eagle Small Cap = - 1.45% (category - 2.94%)
Diamond Hill Small/Mid Cap (DHMIX) = + 1.09%
Victory Sycamore Small Cap (VSOIX) = - 5.70%
T Rowe Price Mid-cap Value (TRMCX) = - 2.10% (category -1.70)
Barrow Hanley Value Opportunities - (BVOIX) = + 2.255
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) = - 3.39%
Consumer Staples. (XLP) =. + 4.58%
Industrials (XLI) = +12.51%
Financials (XLF) = + 9.24%
Technology (XLK) = + 8.37%
Energy (XLE). = + 1.91
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I hate to waste your time with just performance so let’s look at the most boring company I have ever examined.
Reynolds Consumer Products - REYN - $21 is a true dinosaur.
REYN is three solid businesses. Hefty plastic bags (garbage and sandwich), Hefty tableware (plastic spoons and cups), and Reynolds wrap. Each is a $1-2 billion dollar business.
There is almost no international business, and the company has never repurchased stock. There have been no meaningful acquisitions or divestitures in the last 5 years. The CEO comes from a background at Sears.
The company blames poor results on declining consumer confidence. If customers cannot afford Hefty bags and paper plates, we should all be hiding under rocks
REYN did a decent investor day in early 2024, and since then the stock has gone straight down with amazing consistency from $33 to $21. Wall Street has 3 buys and 5 holds, but the last earnings call was a true snoozefest.
Boring can be beautiful, but I cannot go this far. The stock sells for 14x an already reduced 2025 estimate. A 4% yield keeps the stock just expensive enough that no private equity guy can swoop in and break up the seance.
T Rowe Mid-Cap has been a big seller recently, and maybe that is why the stocks “acts” so bad. My Norges Bank friends have been holders since 2023, but there are no other value investors of note involved in the stock.
I want to believe, but then I doze off.
But then in the back of my silly mind I think,
“maybe the complete lack of any catalysts, might be a hidden catalyst”