I Lied - Looking Through the Wreckage
Just when I told you I was done looking for new ideas, I realized I was wrong. My Next 20 post from yesterday was only the names where I liked the “story” of the company. What I forgot to do was look at all the stocks where the price had gone down.
This is a big difference between value and growth investing. We have to keep up with recent price declines. The growth guys seldom do this step. They run for the hills when the quarter is bad. Like “moths attracted to the light” us value folks have to look through the wreckage.
I did a screen for stocks down over 20% in the last 3 months with market caps over $1 billion. These are stocks where I really do not like the story, but the stock just keeps going down.
The work of a generalist is never done. This “wreckage” screen is a necessity ever quarter.
Somewhere from either this list, or the Next 20 list, comes the next new member of the Model 20. Now let’s wait for the quarters and the election.
Ranked from most promising to least:
Azenta - AZTA - $40 - these are smart guys and the stock keeps going down, where is the bottom in lab equipment?, is this better than Revvity?
Civitas Resources - CIVI - $40 - I need to make a decision on natural gas, hate the silly variable dividend, maybe Devon - DVN is better?
Kaiser Aluminum - KALU - $66 - smart guys own this, Boeing and China problems, interesting
Ultra Clean - UCTT - $35 - hurt by the ASML miss, high quality company deserves more work
Hillenbrand - HII - $28 - caskets are gone, only boring stuff is left, maybe boring is good?
Worthington Enterprises - WOR - $38 - steel is spun-off, only boring stuff is left, maybe boring is good? Two “Remain Co’s” to look at
Albany International - AIN - $71 - paper making equipment at a discount
Amkor Tech - AMKR - $29 - a big First Eagle stock, need to learn more. semiconductor packaging
Dollar General - DG - $81 - not a big fan, but in keeps getting cheaper, a value at some price?
Teradyne - TER - $111 - needs to get even cheaper, but I love the story, China issues
GLOBALFOUNDRIES - GFS - $39 - maybe with the negative INTC news this idea has some merit, need to learn more
Bloom Energy - BE - $9 - the ultimate Harris stock, huge backlog, good technology and partners, waiting, Chart is better
Humana - HUM - $260 - almost impossible to understand, pass
Acadia Healthcare - ACHC - $50 - being investigated by DOJ, glad I missed this
bomb, will watch from a distance
Advanced Auto Parts - AAP - $39 - keeps going down, but now a bad story about parts from China avoiding tariffs
TopGolf - MODG - $10 - I hate this concept, glad to see then doing poorly
Veeco Inst. - VECO - $29 - my most hated tech stock, glad to see them doing poorly
Archer Avaiation - ACHR - $3 - I think I will pass on flying cars
Goodyear - GT - $8 - please make the pounding stop, just keeps getting worse, at $6 I will look again
Chemours - CC - $18 - titanium dioxide, I like Tronox - TROX better
Rogers, Coty, MGP Ingredients, and Oxford, are on this list (down > 20%) and on my Next 20 list, Chart Industries - GTLS in the Model 20.
I am done watching the Pacific Ocean. La Jolla is beautiful, but too crowded, I am moving inland to watch some horse races at Santa Anita.