Getting Organized - Consumer Cyclicals
I finally have my entire universe.
Seeking Alpha has a universe of 4,576 companies, when you toss the foreign stocks and micro-caps, I would guess the universe shrinks to about 2500. The universe of US headquartered, over $500 million, on Guru Focus is 2515.
Right now my universe is 279 companies. Let’s round up to 300. For about 10% of the US stock universe, I have glanced at the 10-year chart, the valuation, the Wall Street opinion, and maybe 2 Seeking Alpha reports. The job of a generalist is difficult, but not impossible.
Old people wakeup early. I try to look at 2 companies, for at least 30 minutes each, every morning.
Basic Materials - 8/23 - on Seeking Alpha 232 companies, my list 30
Consumer Staples - 8/24 - on SA 187, my list 40
Energy - 8/24 - on SA 236, my list 10
Healthcare - 8/26 - on SA 1034, my list 20
Utilities - 8/28 on SA 106, my list 18
Technology - 8/29 - on SA 554, my list 15
Financials - 8/30 - on SA 678, my list 15
Communications Services 8/30 - on SA 239, my list 18
Real Estate - 8/30 - on SA 178, my list 10
Industrials - 8/31 - on SA 628, my list 37
Consumer Cyclicals - 8/31 - on SA 504, my list 66
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Right now I have only one consumer cyclical, Brunswick - BC - $79, in the Top 20 portfolio. I have at least 20 good ideas, if I wanted to add another. I prefer to wait for the election, and see where the economy is going.
From the “bottom up” the market’s message is buy consumer cyclicals, form the “top down” I am deciding to wait.
Consumer cyclicals are about 15% of mid-cap indices, so I am. underweighted.
My favorite consumer cyclicals in order:
LKQ Corp. - LKQ -s waiting for 9/10 investor day, auto replacement parts
Oxford Industries - OXM - Tommy Bahama, waiting for quarter
Hasbro - HAS - great in video games
Norwegian Cruise - NCLH - why am I waiting???
Bowlero - BOWL - building trust
Figs - FIGS - fashion oriented scrubs
First Watch - FWRG - buying back franchises??
BorgWarner - BWA - electric vehicle issues
Vail Resorts - MTN - cheap stock
Etsy - ETSY - I have no courage
Krispy Kreme - DNUT - Baron owns, not crazy
Yeti Holdings - YETI - well run cooler company
Thor - THOR - old folks love RV’s
Harley Davidson - HOG - hate the financing business
Whirlpool - WHR - wish they would cut the dividend
Portillo’s - PTLO - great ribs, expansion issues
Columbia Sportswear - COLM - very well run
Polaris - PII - more industrial than you think
Unifi - UFI - can they get enough recycled material?
Viad - VIAD - neat idea from Tim
Lindblad Ex. - LIND - balance sheet is shaky
Coursera - COUR - good content
Goodyear Tire - GT - forever restructuring
Tempur Sealy - TPX - Select Equity’s top idea
Signet - SIG - Select Equity own more than 10%
Carters - CRI - children’s cloths
Advance Auto Parts - AAP - problems continue
Carriage Service - CSV - death business is exciting
Canada Goose - GOOS - good products
Bloomin Brands - BLMN - on the fence on Outback
Duluth Holding - DLTH - tiny company, great brand
RCI Hospitality -RICK - needs in person research
Visteon - VC - BorgWarner is better
Sally Beauty - SBH - ask your stylist
Wolverine World Wide - WWW - boring
Noodles - NDLS - good food
European Wax - EWCZ - another crazy Baron idea
Legatt & Platt - LEG - life after the dividend cut?
Foot Locker - FL - new management
Lovesac - LOVE - decent product
Green Brick - GRBK - my favorite homebuilder
Under Armour - UA - miserable
Steven Madden - SHOO - well managed
Monro - MNRO - smart guys, tough industry
Victoria Secret - VSCO - needs more research
Warby Parker - WRBY - fashion glasses
Marine Max - HZO - smart guys in boat retailing
American Eagle - AEO - solid, boring
Nordstrom - JWN - too much California
Kohls - KSS - bad merchandise plan
Dollar General - DG - too many old stores
Macy’s - M - will somebody buy this?
Valvoline - VVV - I like DRVN better
OneSpaWorld - OSW - neat cruise business
PVH Corp. - PVH - OXM is better
VF Corp . - VHC - can they sell stuff?
Hanesbrands - HBI - too much debt
Suburu - FUJHY - dealerships?
Aramark - ARMK - well run, watch
Mohawk - MHK - carpet, when housing breaks
Ralph Lauren - RL - OXM is better
MGM Resorts - MGM - gambling is immoral
CarMax - KMX - hate the financing side
Wiliams Sonoma - WSM - great internet business
Ford - F - hate the financing business
Nike - NKE - screwing their retailers