Earnings Scorecard
5 A’s, 5 B’s, 2 C’s, 1 D’s, 0 F’s, 6 incomplete
The grades are in after two weeks of earnings season. So far, I have done better than I expected. I took one 20% hit in Chart Industries - GTLS - $126, but my convictions are unchanged. There was one acquisition (HP) that is a cause for concern.
Below is my model portfolio ranked in order of attractiveness. This is a good exercise. You should always be able to roughly rank your portfolio from best to worst. Right now I think I have 15 strong ideas, and I am wavering on 5 companies. Let’s wait for everybody to report before making changes.
Corteva - A - gaining important share in seeds (maybe 65%), but pesticides are still a little slow, I am growing weary of the word re-stocking, still my favorite idea
Nutrien - reports 8/7 - stock has been under-performing
Chart Industries - C - GTLS stock took a big hit on what were just timing differences, medium term outlook unchanged, now my third favorite idea, will still make about $12/share this year, calling Wall Street analysts weasels is too harsh on weasels, so I am switching to dirty vermin to describe Wall Street, leverage down from 5.4x to 3.2x since Howden, this is a Harris stock
Brunswick - B - this could have been worse, saying that almost $6/share is almost locked in for 2024 limits the risk
Red Rock Resorts - B - Durango doing great, and being expanded, Inspirada in Henderson is in the pipeline for 2026?
Royal Gold - reports 8/7
Tyson - reports 8/5
Kinder Morgan - B+. - significant projects added to backlog, this is clearly a Trump stock, FERC could ruin the party
Helmerich & Payne - D - the quarter was fine, but the Middle East acquisition was not needed, I still like oil service, but Halliburton might be better
Treehouse - reports 8/6
Jack in the Box - reports 8/7, but early sales data is still negative
Titan International - B - slightly weak, but balance sheet is OK, farm income down big in 2023 and 2024, aftermarket strong, OEM weak, Carlstar acquisition going well
Revvity - A - pharma/bio is still slow, but getting better, average idea, still want to see the Select Equity’s 13F for 6/30, aggressive repurchase planned
First Cash - A - strong results in pawn and point of sale, still worry about credit losses in POS
Middleby - A - strong quarter, but the stock popped so just an average idea
Northwest Natural - B - solid quarter, but maybe some of the REITS or Antero Midstream is a better idea
Smith & Nephew - A - decent quarter, but stock really popped, other healthcare ideas loom
Neogen - C - not that excited by new 2025 forecast
Cable One - D - weak quarter again, stock has been volatile, maybe Nexstar is better
Unifi - reports 8/22, maybe I understand other ideas better?