Does the Election Matter?

In a perfect world we could all ignore economics and politics, and just spend our time looking at companies.

We don’t live in a perfect world, so let’s spend a little time thinking the election and the Top 20 model portfolio.

My personal politics are confused. I started as a McGovern fan in 1972. At age 14 I wore his button to school because there were no golf courses in Southeast Asia. I read Goldwater’s Conscience of a Conservative in 1976, then Kemp, Lehrman, Laffer, Waniski, and Bartley, in the late 70’s, and Gilder’s Wealth and Poverty in 1981, to become a Reagan Republican. I volunteered for the 1984 Dallas convention and drove George, Jeb, and Neil Bush, around in the motorcade. I became a Perot voter in 1992 and a Dr. Ron Paul voter in his doomed attempts. However, even though I am a diehard Supply-Sider, I have always voted for Democrats because I have libertarian social views.

Right now I call the the 2024 election as too close to call. My portfolio reflects that opinion . I own some Trump stocks and some Harris stocks.

Trump stocks - Kinder Morgan, Halliburton, and maybe Royalty Pharma, HF Sinclair and Brunswick

Harris stocks - Chart Industries, Darling, and maybe Royalty Gold and FirstCash

Nexstar should benefit from all the political advertising.

I think I am pretty well hedged.

There are probably some ideas that I would not add to the portfolio until I know the election results.

How bad would Harris be for the economy? That is the reason I own Royal Gold and FirstCash. I think it is interesting to consider the opinion progressive leader Cenk Uygur (if you have 4 hours to waste, and want some great political insight, listen on YouTube to the Uygur interview with Lex Fridman).

Uygur points out that Harris is a “corporate Democrat” and like Obama would only do 5-15% of her more liberal ideas. Her donors, in Uygurs opinion, would not allow the corporate tax hike. Of course, that also depends on the outcome of the House and Senate races.