Consumer Cyclical - BC!!!-THO!!!-JACK!!!-RRR!!!
I have too many ideas is this sector. I wish American consumers had less credit card debt. Maybe it is “too early” to own this stuff. THO and BC both had unit sales down 30% this year in their most expensive products. I feel like I have to nibble at those stocks right now. JACK is a play on the strength of their franchise system. JACK is not really a consumer cyclical. RRR is certainly not a consumer cyclical. The locals in Las Vegas are not going away. If RRR and JACK are special situations, I feel under-weighted in this sector
I feel like I should own at least one more stock in this sector. HAS and MTN have some issues. PII is calling out to me, so is ETSY, PTLO, and OXM. Even DNUT and SIG deserves consideration. Maybe just go high quality with QSR? I understand these stories very well, but economic fear is holding me back.
I remain confused, and unhappy I cannot make a decision.
My favorite consumer cyclicals in order:
Hasbro - HAS - $57 - I wish I understood the role playing gaming world a little better
Vail Resorts - MTN - $192 - the global warming argument becomes the central issue, very tricky call
Polaris - PII - $57 - great operators, too similar to Brunswick??
Etsy - ETSY - $55 - great strategy, is the consumer going to spend
Oxford - OXM - $80 - Tommy Bahama is not a fad
YETI - YETI - $39 - simple product and growth strategy
Portillo’s - PTLO - $9 - great food, expanding too fast?
Krispy Kreme - DNUT - $10 - I really think this will work, Baron owns
First Watch Restaurants - FWRG - $19 - great food, good concept
Borg Warner - BWA - $32 - too much EV??
LKQ - LKQ - $37 - tricky business
Restaurant Brands - QSR - $67 - Ackman’s high quality idea
Harley-Davidson - HOG - $31 - I worry about the finance sub
Columbia Sportswear - COLM - $87 - very well run, great clothes
Blooming Brands - BLMN - $12 - seems out of control, old locations
Signet Jewelers - SIG - $81 - well run, big Select Equity position
Whirlpool - WHR - $116 - bounced of $90
Leggett & Platt - LEG - $10 - bad balance sheet
Carters - CRI - $56 - kids clothes, big yield
Sally Beauty - SBH - $11 - tough business
FIG’S - FIGS - $6 - can you trust the CEO, Baron owns, top quality stuff
Foot Locker - FL - $22 - new management, issues with Nike
Wynn - WYNN - $89 - some China issues, great properties
Macy’s - M - $17 - will somebody buy? no premium for JWN
Temper-Sealy - TPX - $56 - big Select Equity position
Norwegian Cruise - NCLH - $25 - missed it at $15
Goodyear Tire - GT - $9 - ugly OEM business
Wendy’s - WEN - $17 - 6% yield, too many activists
Subaru - FUJHY - $9 - great cars, strange company
Carmax - KMX - $85 - great operators, finance issues
Advance Auto - AAP - $44 - not sure they will make it
Mohawk - MHK - $120 - waiting, waiting
Williams Sonoma - WSM - $188 - missed it at $60, makes me ill
Ford - F - $10 - finance business issues
Nike - NKE - $77 - do not like their strategy